Winter will lash back again out of the north, bringing snow and freezing weather…But spring will advance nonetheless, silently and unnoticed. The rearguard actions of winter will be repulsed in the end; the higher sun will assert its dominance through the longer days, and the winds will dry the fallow land wherein a million shoots from the seeds of last year’s growth are slowly stirring.

Eliot Porter

THE ASTRONOMICAL OUTLOOK
   The Shining Grackle Moon, new at 8:35 p.m. on February 24, waxes throughout the week, entering its second quarter at 2:46 a.m. on March 4. Rising in the morning and setting in the evening, the dark moon will be overhead in the early afternoon.
    Before dawn, all the constellations that ride the Milky Way into summer lie in the east. To the far north, Cassiopeia zigzags towards Cepheus, the house-like constellation just east of the North Star. Following the Milky Way to the south, find Cygnus, the Northern Cross, shining above you. Below Cygnus, is Aquila, with its bright star Altair. Below that, summer’s Sagittarius.

THE WEATHER
IN THE SECOND WEEK OF EARLY SPRING
    This is the first week of the year (and the first week since last November) in which a high of 70 degree becomes possible (ten percent possible)!  And chances for afternoon highs in the teens and 20s drop to between five and ten percent per day - the first time that has happened since early December. Temperatures also climb into the 50s and 60s thirty percent of the time, but they reach the 30s and 40s fifty to 60 percent of the time.
    Although the first cold front of March arrives on the 3rd, bringing a 65 percent chance for highs in the 40s or below, the first quarter of the month brings a steady ten percent chance for an afternoon in the 70s for the first time since early November. In fact, 70s occur more often on the 2nd and 3rd than on any days in the first three weeks of March.     
    And 50s or 60s occur about 30 percent of the time, similar to what happened during February's third week. This time, however, the percentage never drops below that level until late autumn. The chances for that warmth dissipate somewhat as the first cold front of March comes through on the 3rd.

TRACKING THE WEATHER                                                                                                                             When I first came to southwestern Ohio, I started charting the weather with a barometer my wife gave me, and I soon found that major high-pressure systems cross the central United States once every five to six days, and that approximately 65 to 70 systems pass through my yard in a year's time.  The record shows that every season turns on a specific weather system or combination of two or three systems that occur at specific times and are usually predictable within a day or two. According to my weather history, the most significant transitions occur:
--at the arrival of early spring on February 15, when the likelihood of highs in the 40s and 50s increases from late winter's 30 percent to well above 50 percent;
--at the coming of middle spring on March 28, after which the likelihood of highs above 60 degrees rises to near 50 percent;
--at the late spring pivot date of April 23, after which the chances for temperatures above 60 climbs to more than 70 percent;
--at the early summer passage date of May 20, when chances for 70s or above exceed the 70 percent mark;
--on June 13, when chances for 80s or above reach 70 percent and remain at that level until the last weeks of late summer;
--on August 23, when the chances for 80s decline to approximately 50 percent;
--at the entrance of early fall on September 12, when likelihood for highs above 80 degrees goes down to 40 percent and temperatures return to the range of early summer;
--at the approach of middle fall on October 2, when temperature patterns start to mimic those of late spring, with only 70 percent of the highs going above 60 degrees;
--on October 19, when the percentage of temperatures above 60 falls to 40 percent;
--on November 4, when 40 to 50 percent of the days drop below 50 degrees;
--and at the start of early winter, December 5, after which 70 to 90 percent of the highs are in the 40s or below.

   Of course, there is another lesson from these pivots, the lesson that each day between each pivot is also critical, that every day, closely examined, marks some momentous passage.