Although a life of retreat offers various joys, none, I think, will compare with the time one employs in the study of herbs, or in striving to gain some practical knowledge of nature's domain.

Walafrid-Strabo, HORTULUS, 9th Century A.D.

EPHEMERIS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF MIDDLE FALL

The Jerusalem Artichoke Moon, dissolving all the golden artichokes in the gardens of Yellow Springs, becomes the new Buzzard Migration Moon on October 18 at 12:33 a.m. Rising in morning and setting in the evening, this dark moon is overhead in the middle of the day, making turkey vultures restless.

THE COMING WINTER IN THE LOWER MIDWEST

Someone recently me asked if this summer’s cool July and August meant we were going to have a cold winter. I checked the statistics, and here is what I found.

The below-average Julys and Augusts of 1984, 1947, 1927, 1915 and 1891 were followed by cold winters (in 1985 and 1948), average winters (in 1928 and 1891) and one warm winter (in 1916). Based on the long view of history, therefore, it appears that there is a slightly better chance of a good winter rather than a bad one this year.

And, looking at recent weather history (the past ten years or so), I have concluded that this fall and winter should be average to above average in terms of temperature, and maybe a little above average in terms of precipitation.

The November of 2008 was the chilliest since 2002, and since harsh Novembers rarely occur back-to-back, odds favor a slightly warmer November in 2009. Although last year’s December was not severe, it too was a little below average, making the chances for a relatively mild 12th month slightly better than usual. And January of 2009 was almost five and a half degrees below normal; since cold Januarys rarely occur two years in a row in the Lower Midwest, expect at least an average beginning of 2010, if not a relatively gentle one. As for February, last year’s warm conditions could well repeat themselves, since really cruel Februarys are becoming less frequent.

Over all, the amount of snow in the winter of 2008-2009 was close to average, although January brought over a foot of frozen precipitation as far south as the Ohio River. That kind of January snowfall is a once-in-a-decade phenomenon, so it is not likely to be repeated this year. Odds for a February blizzard are low. On the other hand, December is overdue for heavier-than-normal precipitation.