FEBRUARY

The February Outlook
Normal February average temperatures climb a full six degrees in the Lower Midwest. Starting in the upper 20s, they rise one degree every 120 hours, reaching the middle 30s by the first of March. The coldest February on record was in 1918, when temperatures averaged 15 degrees, almost 15 degrees below the mean of 29.6. The warmest occurred in 1930 with an average of 41.7 degrees.
A typical February brings one day with highs in the 60s, two or three in the 50s, a week in the 40s, eight to ten days in the 30s, six in the 20s and one or two days only in the teens or single digits. There is a 50 percent chance for a morning or two below zero.
The coldest part of February usually falls between the 1st and the 14th. Early spring, a pivotal warming time, occurs by the 17th seven years out of ten. Wildflower foliage begins to appear; bulbs push up; buds swell on the trees; groundhogs and opossums become more active.
The February days with at least a forty percent chance for highs only in the 20s or below are the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 12th. The warmest days, those with a thirty percent chance for highs above 50, are the 2nd, 15th, 18th, 19th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, and 28th. The 22nd is typically the warmest day of all, having a 50 percent chance for highs above 50 degrees.
The normal precipitation for February (in water equivalent) is 2.11 inches, the second-lowest of the year. The wettest February days, those with at least a 50 percent chance for precipitation, are the 1st, 3rd, 6th, 11th, 14th, 15th, and 21st. Snow is most likely to fall on the 3rd through the 6th, on the 11th and 12th, and the 25th. The greatest amount of February snowfall, 31.6 inches (the average is 6.1 inches), occurred in 1910.
The driest February days, those that bring a twenty percent chance or less for precipitation, are the 7th, 8th, 10th, and 20th. The percent of possible sunshine increases four percent from that of January, up to 45 percent. The sunniest February days, those with at least a 60 percent chance for sun, are the 4th, 23rd, 26th, 27th, and 28th. The days that have at least a 60 percent chance for clouds are the 1st, 3rd, 6th, 11th, 14th, 16th, 17th, 19th, 21st, and 22nd.

Wintercount
Between six and eight major banks of high pressure move across the Midwest this month, beginning with the 13th front of winter on February 3rd. The first four February weather systems belong to the subseason of late winter, the last three to early spring. Frozen precipitation usually precedes these fronts except between February 17th and 23rd, when the amount of snow often decreases to November levels.

Front 13: February 3: A strong front which breaks the Groundhog Day warm spell.

Front 14: February 6: This is another significant weather system, but it is the last really bad cold front until Snowdrop Winter arrives near February 24th.

Front 15: February 11: This front will be relatively weak, foretaste of early spring just a week away.

Front 16: February 15: This is the last front of late winter, and it will be followed by milder weather almost everywhere in the nation.

Springcount
Twenty-three major spring cold fronts cross the Ohio Valley between the middle of February and the last week of May. The first three weather systems come this month. Although they can sometimes be just as chilling as the winter fronts, early spring systems are usually followed by more telling warm spells that gradually bring changes to the local flora.

Front 1: February 20: This first front of early spring is usually relatively mild, and it is often dry as well.

Front 2: February 24: This front brings “Snowdrop Winter” to the lower Midwest; but the February 24th front is the last really bad front of the first half of the year – except for the March 7th cold front.

Front 3: February 27: Cold, but not too cold.

The Four Phases of February

Another way to look at February weather is to divide it into four basic weather phases; even though each phase is different in each part of the country, the general pattern holds true most years:

Phase 1: The Groundhog Day Thaw between January 31st and February 2nd

Phase 2: The last and often coldest days of winter between the 4th and 16th

Phase 3: The beginning of early spring and a softening of conditions throughout the country between the 17th and the 23rd

Phase 4: A return of colder weather between the 24th and March 7th

WEEKLY WEATHER TRENDS
WEEK 1
The first two days of February often bring the Groundhog Day thaw—a brief time of mild temperatures. Beginning on the 3rd, however, conditions typically become chillier. The likelihood of below-zero temperatures becomes the greatest of the entire winter, and the chances for highs below freezing remains steady at 60 percent. The second barometric high arrives near the 6th and generally reinforces the cold. The driest day of February's first quarter is typically the 7th, bringing just a 20 percent chance for rain or snow. The wettest days are the 1st (with a 55 percent chance for precipitation), and the 3rd and 6th (each with a 40 percent chance). The sunniest day, with almost a 70 percent chance for at least partly cloudy skies, is the 4th.

WEEK 2
The second quarter of February is typically chilly, with high temperatures near or below freezing better than 60 percent of the time. The likelihood of below-zero temperatures falls to half of that of last week, however. The 11th ushers in the third major cold wave of the month, typically the last severe front of winter. By the 14th, chances for highs in the 20 or below fall to only ten percent, and by the 15th, chances for spring warmth above 40 degrees jump to 40 percent in most of the country—the highest so far this year. This change is so dramatic on regional weather charts, that it can easily be called the beginning of early spring—a six-week period of changeable conditions during which milder weather gradually overwhelms the cold.
Precipitation is generally light between the 7th and the 10th. Between the 11th and the 15th, however, each day carries about a 50 percent chance for rain or snow.

WEEK 3
The third quarter in February is statistically one of the most exciting of the entire year. Chances for cold highs in the 20s or below remain around 20 percent throughout the week. However, chances for highs in the 40s or above climb to 60 percent by the 20th, and then between the 18th and the 23rd, chances for highs in the 50s or 60s reaches an average of 20 percent per day, the first time that has happened since December 10th. And in one of the most radical weather changes of the year, the weekly chances for an afternoon in the 60s swell from last week's one in ten to three in ten.
Although below-zero temperatures still occur at this time of the year, February's third quarter is the second-last period of early spring in which such cold might be expected (March's first week is the very last). Even the fifth high-pressure system of the month, which passes through around the 20th, is typically a mild one.
There is a 30 percent chance for precipitation on most days this week. The 20th is the day least likely to be wet, bringing just a 20 percent chance for rain or snow. The likelihood for clouds is high: 60 percent of the days offer no sun at all.

WEEK 4
This is Snowdrop Winter Week, a time of meteorological ambivalence, promising spring, then backsliding. First the warmth: The fifth major high pressure system of February comes through in the early days of the week, but it is typically the weakest front of the month. The 21st is usually mild, and the 22nd and 23rd are sometimes the very warmest days of February.
Then a step backward: Snowdrop Winter arrives on the 24th, often one of the windiest days of the month, and colder temperatures often return for up to 72 hours. While highs above 50 come five to ten percent of the time, and 40s are recorded 20 to 25 percent of the years, highs below freezing occur the remaining 60 to 70 percent of the time.

THE DAILY WEATHER HISTORY
February 1
Highs rise above 40 degrees 45 percent of the time on this date, with temperatures in the 50s or 60s two years in ten. Skies are generally cloudy, and today and the third are the most overcast of the month, bringing only a 35 percent chance for any sun. Rain or snow falls 55 percent of the years, and thunderstorms are more likely to occur today and tomorrow than on any other days in February.
February 2
Typically, this is the mildest day of the first two weeks of February, with highs in the 40s or 50s half of the time. Thirties occur 15 percent of the years in my record, 20s another 15 percent, teens or below another 15 percent. Skies are overcast five days in ten, and the clouds carry rain or snow 35 percent of the years.
February 3
The first high-pressure system of the month often comes through today, bringing much colder weather, with a 15 percent chance for below-zero temperatures for the first time since the 21st of January. In fact today begins a weeklong period of increased possibilities for frigid morning lows. Highs rise to the 50s fifteen percent of the years, to the 40s in 25 percent of the years, to the 30s in 35 percent, to the 20s or below 25 percent. Clouds are likely: today is one of the six February days on which there is just a 30 percent chance to see the sun. Precipitation occurs four times in a decade on this date.
February 4
Today is sunny 75 percent of the time - this being the brightest day in the first three weeks of February. But the likelihood for cold is almost as great as it gets for the whole winter: highs on February 4ths are in the 20s or below 50 percent of the time. Fifties or 60s occur only once in a decade; 30s and 40s make up the other 40 percent. Chances for snow diminish somewhat from the first days of the month, dropping to 30 percent.
February 5
Chances for highs just in the 20s or teens: 35 percent. For 30s: twenty-five percent. For 40s or 50s: forty percent. Rain or snow: three days in ten on this date. Completely overcast conditions: 55 percent of the time.
February 6
Odds in favor of cold continue strong since the second high-pressure system of the month is due today. More below-zero temperatures are recorded for this date than for any other February day. Fifties come 15 percent of the years, 40s another 15 percent, 30s on 30 percent, 20s on 20 percent, teens on 15 percent and single digits on five percent of the years. Overcast conditions occur six days in ten, and snow falls 40 percent of the time.
February 7
Continued cold is the rule. Highs reach above 50 only five percent of the time, 40s occur 20 percent, 30s, 20s or teens a full 75 percent. February 7th is one of the four driest days of the winter, carrying just a 20 percent chance for rain or snow. The sun, however, appears just half of those days.
February 8
There is a slight chance of a high in the 60s (five percent chance of that), but chilly temperatures remain the rule. Only 15 percent of the afternoons bring highs in the 40s or 50s, and the remaining 80 percent of the time, the air warms no higher than the 30s - often remaining in the 20s or teens. Chances for precipitation rise a bit above yesterday's chances, and rain or snow comes three times in a decade. There is a 15 percent chance for a morning below zero.
February 9
Temperature statistics for today: chances for highs in the teens are 15 percent, for twenties 25 percent, for thirties 40 percent, for 40s five percent, for fifties 15 percent (today is one of two days in the first 14 days of February on which chances for highs in the 50s are so great). Rain or snow comes just 30 percent of the time, and the sun appears only five times in a decade. The possibility of below-zero temperature continues at 15 percent.
February 10
The 10th brings 60s or 50s in just five percent of the years, and 40s in 35 percent of the years. Cooler 30s, however, occur another 35 percent of the time; 20s, teens or even single digit highs chill this date one year in four. Precipitation is light: rain or snow falls only one day out of five. On the other hand, overcast conditions remain common, the sun appearing only half the time.
February 11
The third cold wave of the month, ordinarily the last severe system of late winter, arrives near this date. And today is usually one of the wettest of the month, with snow falling 35 percent of the time, and rain another 20 percent. A sunless sky is typical (only one day in three brings any break in the clouds), and in 55 percent of the years, temperatures remain in the 20s or 30s. Fifteen percent of the years can see highs in the 50s, however, with another 30 percent bringing 40s.
February 12
Eighty percent of February 12ths are in the 30s or below, but from now on, there is at least a five percent chance of a day in the 60s on all but six of the remaining days in February, making today one more pivot date in the progress toward early spring. Snow often obscures that progress, however, falling on better than 40 percent of all the February 12ths in recent history. Clouds cover the sky 45 percent of the time.
February 13
Mild conditions above 40 occur three times in a decade on this date. Most of the years, though, the 13th brings highs in the 30s (five years in ten) or the 20s or teens (two years in ten). One statistical curiosity: February 13th has a higher incidence of days in the 30s than any other day of the month. There is a 35 percent for rain or snow, and a 50/50 chance for totally overcast skies.
February 14
Today is the first day of early spring throughout Ohio and the lower Midwest. Although temperatures can be in the 30s or even in the 20s on 55 percent of all the days, February 14th suddenly offers a 45 percent chance of a high in the 40s, 50s or even 60s. Precipitation is often the price for warmth: snow falls 25 percent of the time, rain 30 percent. Odds for a morning below zero are less than five percent per day for the next three days.
February 15
Today has the highest incidence of highs in the 50s and 60s of any time so far in February - a full 40 percent of the afternoons reach those levels. That’s the first time since December 15th that the likelihood of mild temperatures has been so great. Chances for rain or snow reach 50 percent, as the fourth cold wave of the month approaches, and the skies are completely overcast on 50 percent of all the days.
February 16
Although the 16th is generally not as warm as the 15th, today's temperatures are in the 50s twenty-five percent of the time, and in the 40s another 25 percent. Afternoons in the 30s come 35 percent of the years, and cold 20s ten percent, icy teens five percent. The sky is usually overcast, with precipitation 40 percent of the years. The 14th through the 16th rarely see below-zero lows.
February 17
Seventy-five percent of the time, highs rise above freezing, making the typical temperature for this date the second warmest so far in the year. Fifties occur 20 percent of the time, 40s twenty-five percent of the time, 30s another 25 percent of the time, 20s fifteen percent, teens just five percent. Blue sky appears just 40 percent of the days. The chances for rain: 25 percent, five to ten percent for snow.
February 18
Between today and the 24th, there is a constant ten to 20 percent chance of an afternoon in the 60s - the first time that has happened since early December. Highs find 40 or above 70 percent of the time - making this, on average, the day with the warmest temperatures so far this year. A breakdown of those percentages: chances for 60s are 20 percent, for 50s another 20 percent, for 40s thirty percent, for 30s ten percent, for 20s ten percent No sun is visible, however, 60 percent of February 18ths, and rain or snow falls four years in ten.
February 19
Chances for a high in the 60s are ten percent today. There is a 25 percent chance for 50s, thirty-five percent for 40s, twenty percent for 30s, and just ten percent for 20s. Rain falls 20 percent of the years, snow five percent. This is the last morning of the month on which a below-zero reading is likely.
February 20
Today's statistics are even more promising than those of the 18th: five percent of February 20ths are in the 60s, 20 percent in the 50s, fifty-five percent in the 40s, twenty percent in the 30s. The sun shines half the time, and the chances for precipitation are the lowest of the month (just 20 percent). Below-zero temperatures are rarely recorded between now and the end of February.
February 21
This is another mild, early-spring day almost every year, with only a 15 percent chance for an afternoon high below 40 degrees. The full temperature breakdown: five percent chance for a high in the 60s, twenty-five percent for 50s, fifty-five percent for 40s, ten percent for 30s and just five percent for 20s. Precipitation is likely, however: 50 percent of the years bring rain or snow. Clouds obscure the sun 65 percent of the time.
February 22
Today and tomorrow are typically the warmest days of the entire month. For the first time since December 12th there is a 25 percent chance for a high in the 60s, along with a 20 percent for one in the 50s. Forties occur 30 percent of the time, 30s twenty-five percent. Skies are cloudy 65 percent of the years in my record, with rain or snow likely 45 percent of the years.
February 23
Chances for a day in the 50s or 60s are 15 to 20 percent each, with 40s occurring 45 percent of the afternoons. There is just a 15 percent chance for 20s and a five percent chance for 30s. The sun shines twice as often today as yesterday, and that phenomenon marks the beginning of the end of winter's gray skies. Although February and March still have plenty of clouds in store, the frequency of brighter days now shows a slow but steady advance.
February 24
This is typically one of the windiest days of February (the sixth high-pressure system comes in within 24 hours of today), and colder temperatures often return for Snowdrop Winter. While 50s and 60s each come five percent of the time, and 40s are recorded 40 percent of the years, highs only in the 30s occur 30 percent of the time, 20s fifteen percent and teens five percent. Snow falls 35 percent of the years. Rain falls another 15 percent, and skies are completely overcast more than half the time.
February 25
During the second day of Snowdrop Winter, highs in the 50s or 60s are rarely recorded. Highs in the 40s occur 30 percent of the time, 30s forty percent, 20s twenty-five percent, and chances for a high only in the teens are five percent for the last time this season. Snow falls on almost half of the years in my weather history, making the 25th the day most likely to bring frozen precipitation in the entire second month.
February 26
Today usually brings continued cold: highs in the 60s are very rare; 50s come five percent of the time; 40s occur just 25 percent of the years, 30s forty-five percent, and 20s a full 25 percent. Below-zero mornings, however, do not usually occur. Skies are clear 65 percent of the time, and the likelihood of precipitation drops to only 25 percent.
February 27
The weather begins to moderate now, and today brings a ten percent chance for highs in the 50s, and a 35 percent chance for 40s. Cooler temperatures are also common, however: a 20 percent chance for a high in the 20s, and a 35 percent chance for 30s. Rain falls three days out of a decade on this date. If there is to be a seventh cold wave this month, it strikes today or tomorrow. Four years in ten, however, it doesn't come at all.
February 28
The sun shines more often on February 28th than on any other February day in my record: 80 percent of the years are partly or mostly clear. Rain comes just 20 percent of the days, snow only five to ten percent. Although there is a 20 percent chance for a high only in the 20s, that is balanced by a 25 percent chance for a high in the 50s. The remaining highs are evenly divided between 30s and 40s.

MARCH

The March Outlook
Throughout March, average temperatures climb almost a dozen degrees, the world warming twice as fast as it did in February. Starting in the lower 30s on the first of the month, normal averages rise one degree every 50 hours, reaching the middle 40s by the beginning of April. Typical lows swell from the 20s to well above freezing, and highs climb from the lower 40s up to near 55.
A typical temperature distribution for average elevations along the 40th Parallel includes up to two days in the 70s, five days in the 60s, six days in the 50s, nine days in the 40s, eight days in the 30s, and one day in the 20s. Frost occurs on about a dozen of the 31 mornings in March. The last hard freeze of the season frequently takes place prior to the first of April.
Although March is the most unpredictable month of spring, certain weather patterns are visible in the majority of years: the first ten days of the period are usually the coldest; and a second major cool spell is often experienced between the 15th and the 22nd. Milder south winds normally prevail during the second and especially the fourth week.
The coldest days of March, those with at least a 35 percent chance of highs in the 30s or below, are the 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th, 11th, 12th, 13th, and 21st. The warmest days, those having a 35 percent chance for highs in the 60s or 70s, are the 22nd, 23rd, 25th, 26th, 28th, 29th, and 30th.
Precipitation increases with the coming of early spring. Normal water equivalent for March is around three inches, almost an inch more than in February. The days with better than a 50 percent chance of precipitation are the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 10th, 20th, 24th, 29th, and 30th. The driest days in March, with less than a 30 percent chance for precipitation, are the 8th, 14th and 21st.
The average amount of snowfall for March in Yellow Springs is about five and a half inches, usually coming in three major installments. The 6th of the month has a higher chance for snow (35 percent chance) than any other day.
The typical March day is sunny to partly cloudy between 50 and 60 percent of the time. The brightest days, those with better than a 75 percent chance for sun, are the 7th, 15th, 21st and 26th. The darkest days, with better than a 55 percent chance for cloud cover, are the 5th, 19th and 29th. The average percentage of possible sunshine is 49 percent, up four percent from February.

Springcount
Twenty-three major spring cold fronts cross the nation between the middle of February and the last week of May. The first three passed through in February. March brings the last seven weather systems of the subseason, early spring.

Front 4: March 3: This front and the next can be some of the most dangerous of the year, often accompanied by thunderstorms, hail and tornadoes.
Front 5: March 5: If there is to be a major March snowstorm, odds are best for it to strike in association with this front.
Front 6: March 9: This front is sometimes followed by some of the milder weather so far in the year.
Front 7: March 14: Chances for a hard freeze increase with Fronts 7 & 8
Front 8: March 19: Equinox, often cold, frosty, and sunny, follows this front.
Front 9: March 24: The period between the 25th and 29th can offer some of the mildest outdoor work days so far in the spring.
Front 10: March 29: A last chill before April showers and major planting time.

WEEKLY WEATHER TRENDS
WEEK 1
Although the first cold front of March arrives on or about the 3rd, bringing a 65 percent chance for highs in the 30s or below, the first quarter of the month also brings a steady five to ten percent chance for an afternoon in the 70s for the first time since early November. In fact, 60s and 70s occur more often on the 2nd and 3rd than on any days in the first three weeks of March. And mild 50s occur about 30 percent of the years, similar to what happened during February's third week. This time, however, the percentage never drops below that level until late autumn.
The skies continue to brighten, with the 3rd bringing a 70 percent chance for sun, and the 7th an 80 percent chance. The wettest day of the week is usually the 4th; it has a 60 percent chance for showers or flurries. The 5th and 6th aren't far behind: 50 percent chance for precipitation those days as the month’s cruel second cold front moves across the Mississippi.

WEEK 2
March’s second quarter brings one more major pivot in the year’s weather patterns. The rate of spring’s advance quickens, and odds for milder weather increase with every sunrise. Chances for an afternoon above 40 degrees rise to 40 percent throughout all but the northernmost states by the end of the week.
The third cold wave of the month arrives on the 9th or 10th, but it is typically one of the mildest so far in the year. Frost strikes the early garden 60 percent of all the nights, however, and there is still a five to ten percent chance each day this week for a high only in the teens or 20s above the Border States.
Odds for rain or snow are about one in three most days of the period; the 10th is the wettest day and has a 50 percent chance for precipitation. But the sun typically shines a little more than it did last week, with the 14th and the 17th often producing fewer clouds than any time since January 26th through 28th.

WEEK 3
Across the northern tier of states, the 18th brings the greatest chance for frost in the entire month—a full 90 percent chance. March 20th is typically the wettest day of the week, with a 60 percent chance for precipitation and the most thunderstorms since autumn. The 21st is the driest day, with just a 25 percent chance for rain or snow. The 21st also brings the most sun of any day in the third week of March: 70 percent of those days are clear to partly cloudy. Only two other March days get so bright—the 7th and the 15th.

WEEK 4
The last quarter of March brings dramatic changes. On the 30th, for the first time since October 22nd, there is a five percent chance for highs to reach 80 degrees in the lower Midwest and East. And on the 31st, those chances double. On the 23rd, the odds for morning frost in the Ohio Valley are about one in two, but on the 29th, those odds fall to just one in four. In the warmest years of all, frost can be gone until October or November (but an average season brings 20 to 30 more dawns below the freezing mark to most of the northern states).
The 25th through the 28th are the driest and sunniest days of the week, each bringing a 60 percent chance or better of a break in the clouds. The 29th is the day most likely to bring overcast conditions—the sun is absent on that date 65 percent of the time, and rain falls 50 percent of the time. The likelihood of a thunderstorm is six times greater this week than it was last week.

THE DAILY WEATHER HISTORY
March 1
There is a ten percent chance of a high in the 60s today, 30 percent for an afternoon in the 50s, the same for highs in the 40s, twenty-five percent for 30s, ten percent for teens. Skies are cloudy with rain 25 percent of the days, snow 20 percent. Below-zero temperatures are rare on this date in the lower Midwest.
March 2
Despite the likely arrival of a high-pressure system, this is another pivotal date in the progress of spring. From now on there is at least a five percent chance for warm 70s each day. Expect 60s ten percent of the time; highs in the 50s come 20 percent of all the years, and 65 percent of the time temperatures are brisk in the 30s or 40s. Once in a decade or two, the thermometer goes below zero and then never even comes up to 20. The sun shines 55 percent of the time; snow is rare; rain comes one year in four.
March 3
Today marks another major pivot point in the possibilities of spring. For the first time all year, there is a ten percent chance for a high in the 70s, and those odds continue, with only a few exceptions, until the 24th, when they double. Sixties occur five percent of the days, 50s five percent, 40s thirty-five percent, 30s thirty percent, 20s fifteen percent of the time. Rain: 25 percent of the days, snow 15 percent. A morning below zero happens only once or so in a century.
March 4
Today is typically the wettest day of March, with rain recorded 50 percent of the years in my record, and snow another 20 percent. With the precipitation, however, comes a fair likelihood of mild weather: a 20 percent chance for highs in the 70s, and a 15 percent chance for a high in the 60s, the best odds for warmth during the first two weeks of March. When the weather isn't temperate, it’s cool: 35 percent chance for highs in the 40s, twenty-five percent for 30s. Twenties and teens are almost never recorded on this date. Today, the 19th, the 29th and the 30th are the cloudiest March days (only a 40 percent chance to see the sun).
March 5
Five to ten percent chance for highs in the 70s today, five to ten for 60s, twenty percent for 50s, twenty-five for 40s, forty-five percent for 30s. Skies are completely cloudy more than half the years, with rain 40 percent of the time, snow ten percent.
March 6
Snow falls 35 percent of all years on this date, making it the snowiest day in my March record. It is also one of three of the windiest days of the month and one of the three days most likely to see a thunderstorm. Highs remain in the 20s one year in ten, reach only to the 30s four in ten, climb into the 40s ten percent of the years, to the 50s twenty percent, 60s fifteen percent, and 70s five percent.
March 7
Today is usually one of the two sunniest days in March. Storms bring rain or snow four years in ten, but clouds typically give way not long after precipitation ends. Colder temperatures often accompany blue skies: a 25 percent chance of a high only in the 20s, and a 30 percent chance for 30s. On the other hand, highs reach the 40s ten percent of the afternoons, the 50s twenty-five percent, the 60s five percent and even the 70s ten percent of the time.
March 8
There is a five percent chance for 70s today, 15 percent for 60s, thirty percent for 50s, twenty-five percent for 40s, twenty percent for 30s, five percent for 20s. Rain or snow comes just 15 percent of the time; the skies are completely overcast four days in ten.
March 9
Today is one of three March days on which the chances for a high of 70 degrees are below five percent. An afternoon in the 60s comes 20 percent of all the years. Highs in the 50s occur 20 percent of the time, the 40s thirty percent, 30s forty percent, 20s five percent of the years. Chances for precipitation are one in three. After today, chances for a morning below zero fall to almost nothing for the first time since December 5th.
March 10
Skies are clear 65 percent of the time on this date, but a thunderstorm or snow shower occurs 50 percent of the years. Today’s temperature distribution: like the 9th, the 10th brings very little hope for 70s, but highs in the 60s come 25 percent of the afternoons; 50s occur 20 percent of the time; 40s come 25 percent, and 30s thirty percent. Frost strikes three nights in four.
March 11
Chances for precipitation are only 30 percent, and the sun shines a little more than 50 percent of the time. As for temperatures, today and the following seven days all offer a five to ten percent chance for summer-like 70s. Highs in the 60s occur on 15 percent of the afternoons, 50s come another 15 percent, 40s twenty percent of the time, 30s thirty-five percent, and 20s ten to 15 percent of the time.
March 12
Chances for a day in the 70s are five percent, for 60s five percent, for 50s twenty percent, for 40s forty percent, for 30s thirty percent. Rain or snow comes a little better than 35 percent of the time, and the sun appears one day out of two. Frost occurs this morning 65 percent of the time.
March 13
March 13th is another pivot day in the progress of spring. Today, the chances for highs above 50 climb to 45 percent and they remain near that level until March 22nd - when they rise even higher. Seventies come five percent of the time, highs in the 60s fifteen percent, and 50s twenty-five percent. Cold weather still happens, of course: 40s come 25 percent of the afternoons, 30s another 25 percent, and 20s five percent. Rain falls 30 percent of the days, snow 15 percent.
March 14
Today is dry 75 percent of the years, with the sun appearing two days out of three. Chances for 70s are five percent, for 60s twenty percent, for 50s twenty percent, for 40s thirty-five percent, for 30s ten percent, and for 20s ten percent. Chances for frost in the garden are one out of two.
March 15
Highs in the 70s come five percent of the time, 60s twenty percent, 50s thirty percent, 40s another 30 percent, and 30s fifteen percent. Precipitation occurs three years in a decade, with snowfall relatively rare. Today is the second-brightest day in the first half of March, carrying a 75 percent chance for sun.
March 16
Today’s temperatures are usually similar to those of the 15th. Highs reach the 70s five percent of the time; they get into the 60s fifteen percent of the time, into the 50s thirty percent, the 40s thirty percent, and into the 30s twenty percent. Historically, however, the 16th is a little wetter than the 15th, rain or snow falling half the time. Chances for morning frost are 65 percent.
March 17
Today is typically one of the warmest days in March, with a five-percent chance for 70s, fifteen percent for 60s, forty percent for 50s, twenty-five percent for 40s, fifteen for 30s. Skies are clear to partly sunny 60 percent of the time; a thunderstorm or flurries occurs five years in a decade. Chances for frost this morning: 45 percent.
March 18
There is a five percent chance for a high above 70 today, 15 percent for a high in the 60s, twenty-five percent for a high in the 50s, thirty percent for 40s, twenty percent for 30s, five percent for 20s. Completely overcast conditions occur half of the years in my record, but snow falls just five percent of the time, rain 25 percent. Frost strikes 60 percent of the mornings.
March 19
The 19th is cloudy one year in two, with rain or snow coming one year in three. Highs in the 60s are recorded 25 percent of all the years; 50s come 15 percent of the years. Forties are the most common of all on this date: 40 percent of the highs remain there. Colder temperatures occur, too: 15 percent of the afternoons reach only into the 30s, five percent don't rise above 29. Frost strikes one morning out of two.
March 20
This is one of the wettest days in an average March, with rain coming 45 percent of the time, and snow another 20 percent. Despite the precipitation, however, some sun shows through the clouds two thirds of the years in my record. High temperatures are in the 60s twenty-five percent of the time, in the 50s another 25 percent, in the 40s another 25 percent, in the 30s twenty percent. Today is the last day of the spring on which the chances for a high just in the 20s reach five percent. There is also a possibility (one or two percent) of highs climbing above 80 for the first time since October 31st. Frost occurs one morning out of two.
March 21
The traditional first day of spring is partly to mostly sunny 90 percent of the time, making it one of the two brightest days in the month. Rain falls just 15 percent of the days, and snow comes another 15 percent. Fifteen percent of the years bring highs in the 70s on this day, five percent 60s, twenty percent 50s, thirty percent 40s, thirty percent 30s. Frost occurs two mornings in three.
March 22
Today’s high temperature distribution: 70s five percent of the time, 60s thirty percent, 50s ten percent, 40s forty-five percent, 30s ten percent. The sun shines five days in ten; rain falls 25 percent of the days, snow just once in a decade. Frost occurs 60 percent of the mornings, but this morning is the last in the spring when odds for a freeze rise so high.
March 23
Of all the March 23rds, ten percent of the days can be in the 70s, thirty percent in the 60s, twenty-five percent in the 50s, thirty percent in the 40s, and just five percent in the 30s. The sky is mostly clear six years in a decade. Snow has rarely been recorded on this date, but rain falls 35 percent of the time. After today, the average chance for frost declines from about 60 percent to 40 percent. On the 29th, chances drop to 30 percent.
March 24
Highs in the 70s occur ten percent of the afternoons, 60s come 20 percent, 50s fifty percent, 40s fifteen percent and 30s just five percent. The 24th is typically the second-wettest day of
March, with precipitation recorded 55 percent of the time (of which only five percent is in the form of snow). Skies are completely overcast on this day 50 percent of the time.
March 25
Chances for rain fall from yesterday's 55 percent down to 35 percent. Highs rise above 70 on ten percent of the days, reach 60 on 25 percent, 50 on 15 percent, 40 on 35 percent, 30 on 15 percent. The sky is clear to partly cloudy 65 percent of the years.
March 26
Chances for a day in the 70s are 15 percent, for 60s twenty-five percent, for 50s thirty percent, for 40s ten percent, for 30s twenty percent. Rain occurs 25 percent of the days, snow just five percent. Frost comes half the mornings, the last time this spring that a freeze is so likely.
March 27
I've noted more thunderstorms on this date than on any other in March: 20 percent of all the years. High temperatures reach the 70s fifteen percent of the time, the 60s fifteen percent, and the 50s thirty percent. Completely overcast skies come only one day in four. Chances for snow fall to less than five percent, but rain strikes one day in three.
March 28
Today is typically one of the warmest days in March, with highs in the 70s occurring 20 percent of the time, 60s twenty-five percent, 50s twenty-five percent, 40s twenty-five percent, and 30s the remaining five percent. Precipitation falls on 40 percent of March 28ths, but almost never in the form of snow. Sunny to partly cloudy skies are accompanied by frost six years in a decade.
March 29
Afternoon temperatures rise above 70 degrees 25 percent of all years - making a typical March 29th the most likely day of early spring to see such warmth. Sixties come another 25 percent, 50s five percent, 40s forty-five percent, 30s and 20s not at all. The likelihood of morning frost drops from 40 percent to 25 percent. Rain comes half the time, and the chances for overcast conditions are 65 percent.
March 30
Another landmark for spring today: the chances for an
afternoon in the 80s jump from only one percent to nearly ten
percent. Seventies come 15 percent of the days, 60s twenty percent, 50s five percent, and cool 40s fifty to sixty percent of the
time. Precipitation and clouds occur half of the days in my
record on this date. Frost strikes one morning out of three.
March 31
Today’s temperature distribution: 80s come 15 percent of the days; chances for 70s are five percent, for 60s ten percent, for 50s fifty-five percent, for 40s five percent, and for 30s ten percent. Frost occurs on just 25 percent of all the mornings. The sun shines 55 percent time. Rain falls a third of all the days, and snow flurries are seen once every 15 years or so. Frost occurs on just 20 percent of the mornings.