THE JANUARY OUTLOOK

Precipitation almost always precedes the seven cold waves that strike this month. Snow falls at least three times, and as many as ten times. Three-fourths of the snowiest Januarys in regional history have occurred since the 1970s.

The January days with the highest frequency of precipitation (better than 50 percent) are the 3rd, 8th, 10th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 17th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, and 30th. The driest days, those with about 20 percent chance for rain or snow, are the 18th, 27th, and 28th. Precipitation is most likely to fall as snow (a 40 percent chance or better) on the 10th, 14th, 22nd, 24th, and 30th.

Of all the daylight hours in January, an average of only 40 percent provides sun. Spells of six to nine days without sunshine occur every year or two between November and March, and longer periods of gray skies are common during winter. In 1986, southwestern Ohio saw no sun for the 14 days between January 29th and February 12th. In 1991-2, the sky was overcast for the 12 days between December 27th and January 7th.

The cloudiest January days, those with better than a 60 percent chance for overcast conditions are the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 14th, 23rd, 29th, and 30th. The sunniest, those with better than a 60 percent of clear to partly cloudy skies, are the 9th, 12th, 13th, 16th, 24th, 26th, 27th, and 31st. The 27th is the most consistently fair day of the month, with a 90 percent chance for sun.

January usually produces an average of nine days in the 20s, three days with highs only in the teens, and one day when the temperature does not get above ten degrees. There is almost always one mild day during the month, sometimes up to ten. About 12 days heat to the 30s, and there can be up to five days in the 40s and 50s. An average of two mornings dip below zero (the 9th and the 11th are the days most likely to see such cold).

There are ten to 15 afternoons when temperatures stay below freezing, and often those days come together, creating the definitive freeze of middle winter. The worst spells fall between the 1st and the 20th, and then between February 5th and 15th. If some extreme weather has not occurred by the end of the second week, chances are slim that the season will amount to anything.

The coldest January days, those with at least a 40 percent chance for highs below 20 degrees, are the 8th, 9th, 10th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 18th, and 25dh. The days with better than a "0 percent chance for highs above 50 are the 4th, 16th, 17th, 24th, and 25th. That the 16th and the 25th are among the coldest and the warmest days is due to the fact that both dates fall on pivotal points between strong high and low pressure systems. If a system is a little late, the weather on those days is mild; if it is on time or a little early, the weather is much colder. Major storms are most likely to occur around January 1, 8-12, and 19-24.

Wintercount
Major January weather systems cross the country at the rate of one major cold wave about every five days. Occasionally, two fronts come back to back, intensifying the severity of conditions. Two or three days of colder weather accompany the arrival of each front; they are followed by about two days of more moderating temperatures. Although such warming times are typical, January can provide up to ten or 15 days in a row during which temperatures remain below normal.

January 1: The New Year’s front is usually one of the most severe systems so far in the winter, and it is preceded by sleet or snow as far south as northern Florida. After its passage, temperatures are typically quite cold. A secondary disturbance often causes additional precipitation on the 2nd and 3rd.

January 5: As the year’s second major front approaches, milder temperatures and more precipitation are likely; thunderstorms are not uncommon in the South. After the January 5th high passes through, however, the cold returns with a vengeance, and the 8th and 9th are associated with some of the most chilling weather so far in the winter.

January 10: The period between January 8th and 12th is one of the main storm windows of year. Not only are blizzards most likely to occur at this time during the first half of the month, but below-zero morning lows are most likely to occur. With a continuing increase in the cold, skies have fewer clouds, and the 12th and 13th bring a better-than-average chance for sun to the eastern half of the nation.

January 15: The day prior to this front is very likely to bring clouds and precipitation. After its passage, the January 15th front initiates a two-week period during which average temperatures are the lowest of the year. Days on which the temperature does not rise above zero typically occur more often this week than any other week, and morning lows below zero occur after the January 15th front more often than at any other time. But after this high moves east, the chances for a slight warm-up increase. During January’s third week in 1890, one of the longest record-breaking thaws in weather history warmed temperatures into the 60s for three days across the Midwest.

January 19: Although the United States lies in the middle of its most frigid time of the entire year, the possibility of mild weather is enhanced by the incursion of powerful southerly winds from the Gulf of Mexico. The resulting turbulence creates the “January Thaw,” a brief space during which much milder temperatures and an increased likelihood of blizzards, thunderstorms, tornados and flooding occurs. After the passage of the January 19th front, the average chances for cold increase for a day or two, then fall off slowly, sometimes never recovering their mid-winter strength. Low barometric pressure before the arrival of the next weather system increases the likelihood of mild conditions.

January 25: This front spawns storms, accompanied by snow or rain, and the days following its arrival make the 25th and 26th some of the month’s chillier days. Secondary frontal conditions, sometimes carrying moist Gulf air, can set off powerful blizzards around the 27th. Most years, however, the sun shines and makes the 27th one of the brightest days of the month. The 27th is also a pivotal statistical date in the fortunes of winter. Throughout the country average temperatures, which had remained stable from the middle of January, climb one degree. That rise may not be obvious in any particular year, but it does represent the cumulative wisdom of all the years on record, revealing the inevitable turn of the earth toward June. The January 27th shift also signals the advent of late winter, a period that still may bring terrible cold and storms but which, overall, paves the way for early spring.

January 31: This is the second weather system of late winter, and it is typically followed by an even more pronounced thaw than occurred after the previous two fronts.

WEEKLY WEATHER
WEEK 1
The warmest days of January's first quarter are typically the 3rd and the 6th, each having a 25 percent chance for highs above freezing. Cold comes too, however. The first major high-pressure system of the year arrives the last day of December or the 1st or 2nd of January, and most days between the 1st and the 7th have a 30 to 40 percent chance for highs only in the 20s or teens. Clouds usually dominate the sky this week: there is just a 40 percent chance for sun between the 1st and 3rd, and there is a 70 percent chance for completely overcast conditions on the 6th. Precipitation is lightest on the 1st (a 30 percent chance), but heaviest on the 2nd and 3rd (around a 50 percent chance).

WEEK 2
Weather history for the second week of January shows rapidly increasing odds for colder weather. Chances for highs only in the teens increase to near 50 percent on the 8th, 9th, and 14th. Below-zero readings occur most often on the 9th and 11th. With a general increase in the cold, skies have fewer clouds, and the 12th and 13th bring a 60 percent chance for sun. The darkest day of the week is usually the 14th, with only a 35 percent chance for clearing. Precipitation occurs two years out of three between the 12th and the 14th.

WEEK 3
After the 15th, statistics show a warming trend that brings a 35 percent chance for a high above freezing on the 16th, and a 40 percent chance on the 20th. The possibility of mild weather and the “January thaw” is enhanced by the approach of the fourth cold front of the month. The low-pressure trough leading that front often brings in warm southerly winds. On the other hand, days when the temperature does not rise above zero occur more often this week than in any other, and morning lows below zero occur more in the third week of January than in any other time of the year. Most of the days this week carry about a 50 percent chance for rain or snow.

WEEK 4
After the January thaw, the likelihood of cooler conditions increases briefly, making the 25th and 26th some of the crueler days of the month. Starting on the 27th, however, the chances for highs above freezing reach above 80 percent, and stay there through the 30th. And although the 31st can bring back subfreezing temperatures 40 percent of the time, that day introduces the possibility of a high in the 60s in the Great Plains and the lower Midwest for the first time since January 7th.

THE DAILY WEATHER HISTORY

January 1
Today is mild 25 percent of the time, reaching into the 40s or 50s; otherwise January 1st is a chilly day in the 20s (twenty-five percent of the time) or 30s (fifty percent of the time). A morning below zero is rare - although 95 percent of the dawns dip below freezing. When precipitation does occur (and that is just 25 percent of the time), it typically accompanies the windy first cold front of Deep Winter.
January 2
January 2nd brings high temperatures in the 40s just ten percent of the time. Seventy percent of the afternoons are in the 30s, fifteen percent in the 20s; five percent of the highs don't even reach zero. Rain or snow comes half the time on this date.
January 3
Today's temperature distribution: five percent chance for a high above 50, a 25 percent chance for 40s, a 50 percent chance for 30s, a ten percent chance for 20s and a ten percent chance for highs just in the teens. Precipitation occurs 50 percent of the time on January 3rd - usually in the form of snow, and clouds dominate 60 percent of the days. Below-zero mornings come five percent of the years, but 25 percent of all the mornings never drop below the freezing mark.
January 4
Chances for highs in the 50s are 15 percent today. Forties come another 15 percent of the days, 30s on 35 percent, 20s on 25 percent, teens on five percent, single digits on another five percent. The likelihood of precipitation is average for this time of the month: a 35 percent chance. Mornings below zero occur just five to ten percent of all the years. Sun is a little more likely than clouds: chances for clear to partly cloudy conditions are 55 percent.
January 5
Ten percent of the highs today are only in the teens or below; 20s occur 30 percent of the time, 30s on 40 percent of the afternoons, 40s on 15 percent, 50s on just five percent. Snow falls 30 percent of the days, rain another five percent. Skies are totally overcast 45 percent of the time. Below-zero morning temperatures occur on 20 percent of the days, making this the third time so far this winter that chances rise so high.
January 6
Today and the 30th are the two cloudiest days of January, each having only a 25 percent chance for sun. Despite the
clouds, however, precipitation for this date remains at the January average of 35 percent. Highs reach the 50s five percent of all the January 6ths; 40s occur 25 percent of the time, 30s occur 40 percent, 20s occur 25 percent, teens five percent.
January 7
Today is one of five January days on which there is a five percent chance for a high above 60 degrees (the other days are the 12th, 13th, 14th, and 31st). Most highs today are much cooler; 25 percent of them are in the 40s, 50 percent in the 30s, twenty-five percent in the 20s, five percent in the teens. Mornings below zero are relatively uncommon for this date, and today is one of ten January days on which there is less than a five percent chance for such cold. The 7th is the day least likely in the entire month to bring rain; snow, however, falls 35 percent of the days.
January 8
The sun shines 55 percent of the time, and the chances for precipitation rise to 45 percent today. Thunderstorms swept the Midwest on January 8th back in 1989 - but chances of that happening again are less than five percent. Highs for today: 40s come 15 percent of the afternoons, 30s on 40 percent, 20s occur 30 percent, teens on 10 percent, and single digits five percent.
January 9
The high temperature falls into the 20s more often (55 percent of the time) today than on any other day in the entire
year. The other 45 percent is divided between 40s (thirty percent of the time), 30s (ten percent) and single digit highs (five percent). There is a 20 percent chance of a morning below zero - one of the highest chances for the winter. And today begins the peak below-zero period for the lower Midwest - a frigid time that lasts until the 21st. This is also one of the two clearest days of the month - the 26th is the other - and both carry a 60 percent chance for sunshine. The likelihood for precipitation is typical for January: 30 percent.
January 10
Today's temperature distribution: 25 percent chance for highs in the 40s, forty percent for 30s, twenty-five percent for 20s, five percent for teens, five percent for a high below zero. Below-zero mornings come ten percent of the time, and only two percent of the mornings have a low above the freezing mark. The sun appears exactly 50 percent of the time on January 10th, and the likelihood of precipitation is almost twice as great as it was yesterday - a full 55 percent chance today (this is one of seven January days on which there is at least a 50 percent chance for rain or snow).
January 11
Below-zero temperatures strike 25 percent of all the years on January 11th. That's the highest percentage for any day in winter. However, today is also one of eleven January days on which there is a ten percent chance for a high above 50 degrees. Forties occur 25 percent of the time, 30s thirty percent of the time, 20s ten percent, teens 20 percent, single digits five percent. The sun shines 45 percent of the days, and rain or snow falls 40 percent of the time.
January 12
Temperatures are similar to those of yesterday: a slight chance for 50s or 60s, twenty percent for 40s, forty percent for 30s, ten percent for 20s, fifteen percent for teens. Odds for precipitation rise, however, and the chances for rain climb from yesterday's 40 percent up to 50 percent. But the sun appears more today than on the 11th: seven out of ten days show at least partly cloudy conditions.
January 13
Although the sun appears for at least a few hours on more than half the January 13ths, rain or snow comes 65 percent of all the days, making today one of the snowiest days in January. Temperatures are in the 20s on 20 percent of the days, in the 30s on 40 percent, in the 40s on 30 percent, and in the 50s five percent and 60s five percent. Mornings below zero are rare on this date - even though the five days prior to this, and the nine days after it show at least a five to ten percent chance for such cold.
January 14
Snow falls a full 70 percent of the January 14ths, making today the wettest day in the first month of the year. And high temperatures only in the 20s occur more often today and tomorrow than on any other dates so far this winter (40 percent of the time). Highs in the 30s come 25 percent, and 40s come 30 percent of the days, a warm afternoon in the 60s just five percent. The sun is seen only one January 14th in three.
January 15
Rain and snow are only half as likely to fall today as yesterday, and the 15th through the 18th is a time when highs in the 50s occur more frequently than at any other January time - except during the traditional thaw days of the 23rd through the 25th. The possibility of mild weather is enhanced by the approach of the fourth cold front of the month: the low-pressure trough leading that front often brings in warm southerly winds. The longest record-breaking thaw in Ohio history warmed temperatures into the upper 60s for three days during the third week of 1890. Colder weather does occur, however; 55 percent of the time, January 15th brings highs only in the 20s or below.
January 16
There is a greater chance (25 percent chance) for highs above 50 on the 16th than on any other day this month. On the other hand, 40 percent of the days bring highs in the 20s or below, and 35 percent are in the 30s or 40s. Today is the second-sunniest day of the month, bringing a 70 percent chance for a break in the clouds (the 27th is the brightest day, with an 80 percent chance for sun). Precipitation does occur: 35 percent of the days bring rain or snow.
January 17
The lower Midwest remains in one of the most stable periods of the entire year. Not only do temperatures dip below freezing
almost every night of the month, but daytime highs are dominated by the 30s and 40s. Like the Dog Days of middle summer when Sirius, the Dog Star, is due south during the daylight hours, the Deep Winter Dog Days, when Sirius is due south at night, often seem like they will never end. Although highs above 50 can occur 15 percent of the time on this date, and 40s another 15 percent, 30s are recorded 30 percent of the afternoons, and 20 or below the remaining 40 percent. The sky is completely overcast half the time, and rain or snow comes seven days out of ten. Mornings below zero occur once in a decade.
January 18
The 18th is much drier than the 17th most years, precipitation falling only 25 percent of the time. Highs warm to the 50s once in a decade, reach the 40s twenty-five percent of the time, the 30s twenty-five to 30 percent of the time, the 20s fifteen percent, the teens 15 percent, and never even reach zero five percent of the time. The sun breaks through the clouds 55 percent of all the days.
January 19
Today and tomorrow are the last two days of January on which there is a 20 percent chance of a morning below zero. The next time chances get so good will be the 6th of February. Highs remain only in the teens or below 20 percent of the time, are in the 20s another ten percent, and in the 30s fifty percent. Warmer 40s occur the remaining 20 percent. Precipitation comes four years in ten on this date, and the sun shines at least a little six in ten.
January 20
On this date, a high in the 50s occurs five percent of the time, and mild 40s come on 40 percent of the afternoons. Cooler 30s are recorded 25 percent of the days, with the remaining 30 percent in the 20s or below. Chances for snow today are 40 percent, for sun 50 percent.
January 21
The brisk winter pace of high-pressure systems often grows sluggish now, stalling somewhere between the 21st and the 26,th favoring a major thaw. Record temperatures even jump above 70 at various lower Midwestern locations today, a sign of the shifting fortunes of winter. There could also be a thunderstorm sometime soon. Most years, however, afternoons reach the 30s or 40s (a 60 percent chance for that), and high temperatures in the 20s come 20 percent of the time. Ten percent of the years produce highs just in the single digits, but another ten percent get up to 50. Chances for rain or snow today are the same as yesterday’s 40 percent. Below-zero mornings happen ten to fifteen percent of the years.
January 22
Between today and February 2nd, the average likelihood of below-zero temperatures falls from slightly more than ten percent down to less than five percent. And today is one of just five January days on which there is a better than 80 percent chance for afternoon highs above 30 degrees. A detailed breakdown of the possibilities: 25 percent chance for highs in the 40s, fifty-five percent for 30s, fifteen percent for 20s and five percent for teens. Rain or snow is likely: 60 percent of all January 22nds bring precipitation.
January 23
This is a pivotal time in the progress of the season: from now on, there is at least an eight percent chance every day of the high reaching 50, and, during the January thaw period (January 23rd-26th), those chances rise all the way to 20 percent. Other possibilities for today: 40s come 20 percent of the time, 30s occur 40 percent, 20s occur 15 percent, and temperatures in the teens five percent. Clouds accompany the possibilities for warmth: 65 percent of all January 23rds are completely overcast. Rain or snow falls more than half the time. The temperature almost never goes below zero on this date.
January 24
The chances for 50-degree temperatures are 20 percent today. Forties come to the lower Midwest another 20 percent of the days. Expect 30s, however, 35 percent of the time, 20s or teens the remaining days. Odds for snow or sleet are 55 percent, making this one of the wetter days in the January palette. On the other hand, the sun breaks through the clouds at least one year out of two.
January 25
The sixth cold front of the month arrives within a day or two of this date, often followed by a four to five day warming period. Chances for a spring thunderstorm increase dramatically at the approach of that weather system, and the wind is sometimes quite warm. There is a 20 percent chance of a high in the 50s, five to ten percent for 40s, thirty-five percent for 30s. On the other hand, the January thaw sometimes ends today - and statistics show a sharp rise in the possibility of high temperatures in the 20s or below, the highest chance since the 18th of the month: almost 40 percent. Clouds cover the sky half the time, and precipitation falls 40 percent of the years.
January 26,
As the thaw season recedes, the chances for highs in the 40s or 50s also diminish to just ten percent each. Most 26ths are in the 30s (forty percent chance of that) or in the 20s (twenty-five percent chance), with a 15 percent chance for teens. With the passage of the next-to-last cold front of the month, skies often clear, and precipitation occurs just 25 percent of the years. One of the area's heaviest snowfalls, however, occurred on this date in 1978.
January 27
The odds for sun today are the best of the month, the second-last cold wave of the month usually having come through. Eighty percent of the days are partly to mostly clear, and precipitation occurs just 25 percent of the years. The last time chances for blue sky were so good was November 13th. And the next time odds for sunny weather get so high is March 7th. Temperatures are in the 30s half the time today, with a ten percent chance for an afternoon in the 50s or in the teens. 40s or 20s each come 15 percent of the time.
January 28
On the 28th of January, the normal average temperature in the lower Midwest rises one degree. Typical highs climb from 32 to 33 lows from 15 to 16. At that same time everywhere in the Northern Hemisphere, that January temperature pivot starts to turn back winter. Punctuating that increase in averages, lower Midwest temperatures are in the 30s six years in a decade, and in the 40s or 50s twice in ten years, leaving only a 20 percent chance for highs in the 20s or teens. The likelihood of precipitation is low: just a 25 percent chance. Yesterday’s 80 percent chance for sun, however, drops to just 55 percent.
January 29
Today is usually much cloudier than the 28th, with chances against the sun rising to 60 percent. Chances for rain or snow climb to 35 percent. Temperatures are typically cool, with a ten percent chance for highs in the teens, 20 percent for 20s, fifty percent for 30s, ten percent for 40s and ten percent for 50s.
January 30
Today is one of the cloudiest days in January (the sun is hidden seven years in a decade), also one of the wettest (precipitation occurs 60 percent of all the days). March 4th is the next time odds for rain or snow get so high. The 17th of January was the last time it got this bad! Temperatures are mixed: ten percent in the 50s, twenty percent in the 40s, fifty percent in the 30s, and twenty percent in the 20s.
January 31
Although the seventh cold front of the year typically arrives near this date, there has not been a better chance (ten percent) for a high above 60 since January 7th. Temperatures in the 40s or 50s occur 25 percent of the afternoons. Sixty-five percent of the days, however, reflect the arrival of January’s last high-pressure system: they stay in the 30s or below. Chances for rain or snow are almost 40 percent. The sun shines 55 percent of the days.