THE COMING WINTER IN THE LOWER MIDWEST

Someone recently me asked if this summer’s cool July and August meant
we were going to have a cold winter. I checked the statistics, and here
is what I found.

The below-average Julys and Augusts of 1984, 1947, 1927, 1915 and
1891 were followed by cold winters (in 1985 and 1948), average winters
(in 1928 and 1891) and one warm winter (in 1916). Based on the long
view of history, therefore, it appears that there is a slightly better
chance of a good winter rather than a bad one this year.

And, looking at recent weather history (the past ten years or so), I
have concluded that this fall and winter should be average to above
average in terms of temperature, and maybe a little above average in
terms of precipitation.

The November of 2008 was the chilliest since 2002, and since harsh
Novembers rarely occur back-to-back, odds favor a slightly warmer
November in 2009. Although last year’s December was not severe, it too
was a little below average, making the chances for a relatively mild
12th month slightly better than usual. And January of 2009 was almost
five and a half degrees below normal; since cold Januarys rarely occur
two years in a row in the Lower Midwest, expect at least an average
beginning of 2010, if not a relatively gentle one. As for February,
last year’s warm conditions could well repeat themselves, since really
cruel Februarys are becoming less frequent.

Over all, the amount of snow in the winter of 2008-2009 was close to
average, although January brought over a foot of frozen precipitation
as far south as the Ohio River. That kind of January snowfall is a
once-in-a-decade phenomenon, so it is not likely to be repeated this
year. Odds for a February blizzard are low. On the other hand, December
is overdue for heavier-than-normal precipitation.